This week, the pair USD/JPY is trading ambiguously but slightly “bearish”. At the end of the week, interest in USD as a risky asset falls, while the stronger decline is prevented by positive statistics.

USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Wednesday, but again returned to decline during today’s Asian session. The emergence of the uptrend yesterday was due to weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan.

The pair may fall.

On the 4-hour chart, the first wave i of 1 of (C) developed, and a downward correction started forming as the wave ii of 1. Now, the wave (a) of ii is developing, within which the fifth wave of the lower level v of (a) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 106.95–106.35. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 109.51.

The USD/JPY pair continues to move within a long-term wide upward trend.

The negative dynamics of the business activity in Japan continues to increase: the PMI index fell from 48.9 to 48.4 points, and with these indicators, the recession is the most expected outcome.